Latest data
Stress Index 81.4 ▼ 0.11D Rerouted traffic 11.6% ▲ 1.0 pt30D Brent $126.55 ▲ 4.4%1M USD/INR ₹94.96 ▼ 1.0%1M USD/JPY ¥158.02 ▲ 1.9%1M US 2s10s 0.35 ▲ 0.081M Dollar index 121.60 ▲ 3.1%1M US effective tariff rate 7.75 ▲ 0.041M Brent crude in rupees ₹12,042.10 ▲ 3.9%1M Kerch −100% vs 2019–23 Hormuz −96% vs 2019–23 Bab el-Mandeb −55% vs 2019–23 Bosporus −49% vs 2019–23 Suez Canal −32% vs 2019–23 US gasoline in 2 wks $4.21 nowcast · 26 Oct

Updated 15 October 2026 · public data, free to reuse

How hard it is to move goods across borders, measured every day.

TradeTurbulence Stress Index0–100

050100

81.4

Severe −0.1 on the day higher than every day of 2010–19

A daily reading of stress in global trade, from 10 public series in five pillars.

Reading for 15 October 2026 · last 180 readings

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Route displacement

11.6%

of chokepoint traffic is on a different route than in 2019–23 (baseline 3.8%).

IMF PortWatch · 11 Oct

All 28 chokepoints →

Most disrupted route

−100%

Kerch Strait: 0 transits a day against a 2019–23 baseline of 38.

30-day mean · 11 Oct

Route detail →

Brent crude in rupees

₹12,042.10

Very high99th percentile of five years

INR per barrel · 14 Oct

All indicators →

Where trade is being diverted

All 28 routes →
Taiwan Strait: −7% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Korea Strait: −6% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Malacca Strait: +24% against its 2019–23 baseline (Above normal)Bohai Strait: −12% against its 2019–23 baseline (Below normal)Dover Strait: +2% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Gibraltar Strait: +3% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Bosporus Strait: −49% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far below normal)Strait of Hormuz: −96% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far below normal)Luzon Strait: +36% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far above normal)Bab el-Mandeb Strait: −55% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far below normal)Suez Canal: −32% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far below normal)Makassar Strait: +5% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Oresund Strait: −24% against its 2019–23 baseline (Below normal)Cape of Good Hope: +80% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far above normal)Mindoro Strait: +10% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Tsugaru Strait: +16% against its 2019–23 baseline (Above normal)Yucatan Channel: +15% against its 2019–23 baseline (Above normal)Kerch Strait: −100% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far below normal)Lombok Strait: +7% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Panama Canal: −17% against its 2019–23 baseline (Below normal)Sunda Strait: +22% against its 2019–23 baseline (Above normal)Windward Passage: −7% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Ombai Strait: −13% against its 2019–23 baseline (Below normal)Balabac Strait: −12% against its 2019–23 baseline (Below normal)Mona Passage: +14% against its 2019–23 baseline (Above normal)Torres Strait: −7% against its 2019–23 baseline (Normal)Magellan Strait: +53% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far above normal)Bering Strait: +473% against its 2019–23 baseline (Far above normal)Kerch −100%Hormuz −96%Bab el-Mandeb −55%Bosporus −49%Suez Canal −32%
Kerch −100% Hormuz −96% Bab el-Mandeb −55% Bosporus −49% Suez Canal −32%
Far below normal Below Normal Above Far above Dot size: normal daily traffic. Traffic against each route's 2019–23 baseline, 30-day mean, IMF PortWatch, 11 Oct 2026.

Latest analysis

All 40 pieces →

Geopolitics & trade16 Oct 2026

Bab el-Mandeb fell below its 2024 low. Suez did not.

Bab el-Mandeb's 30-day traffic hit 25.5 transits a day on 23 September, the lowest in PortWatch's series from 2019. Tankers were 61% of the fall. Suez held.

Read · 9 min →
  1. The surcharge ended in July. The deficit began widening in May.

    The US goods deficit reached $136.6bn in August, its widest since March 2025. Of the $53.5bn widening since April, $40.7bn was in the data by July.

  2. A Stress Index of 80 is higher than any day of 2010–2019

    Severe starts at 80. No weekday of 2010–2019 reached it. As built at 02:16 UTC on 13 October 2026, 68 weekdays of 2026 had; version 3 read 82.3 for 9 October.

  3. The rupee fell through a rate rise, then rose 1.4% in two fixings

    Three of the RBI archive's four weakest rupee fixings came on 7–9 October. From the 9th to the 13th, across five policy announcements, the rupee gained 1.4%.

  4. The Bosporus is 34% of the rise in route displacement. Hormuz, 3%

    On counts fetched 12 October, the Route Displacement Index rose from 10.42% on 8 August to 11.87% on 4 October. The Bosporus and Dover supplied 57%; Hormuz, 3%.

  5. Brent rose 10% in a week. In rupees it set a record

    Brent was $125.44 on 6 October, 10.1% above 29 September. On 2 October a barrel cost ₹13,051, the most in a series from 1987; by 6 October, 7.4% less.

Explore

Stress Index

Five pillars, one number

Shipping, supply chains, energy, money and tariffs, scored against the 2010s. Daily since 2008.

Chokepoints

28 straits and canals

Daily transits against two baselines, from satellite ship tracking.

Outlook

The next official numbers

Nowcasts with honest ranges, a scored record and the agencies' own forecasts.

Indicators

Oil, currencies, yields

Each priced against its own five years, so "high" means high for it.

Topics

Supply Chains 20Oil Markets 17Iran and the Gulf 15Tariffs and Trade Policy 10Shipping and Chokepoints 8US-China Trade 7The AI Build-Out 5Currencies 4Equity Markets 4Rates and Yields 3

Routes to watch

Kerch Strait −100% Strait of Hormuz −96% Bab el-Mandeb Strait −55% Bosporus Strait −49% Suez Canal −32% Oresund Strait −24% Panama Canal −17% Ombai Strait −13% Bohai Strait −12% Balabac Strait −12%

TradeTurbulence is an independent publication built on its own open data: the TradeTurbulence Stress Index (4902 daily readings since 2008), a chokepoint board, a forecast ledger and a set of indicators. Every number traces to a named public source you can re-fetch, and every method — with what it cannot see — is published.

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