Topic
US-China Trade
Bilateral flows, export composition and the tariff schedule, traced through customs and balance-of-payments data rather than announcements.
- The dollar is at its 24th percentile. The rupee is at its 97th.Markets
The broad dollar has closed below every session of 2024 and 2025, yet the rupee and yen sit in the weakest tenth of their five-year ranges against it.
- China's share of US imports is back to its 2000 level.Geopolitics & trade
China supplied 7.95% of US goods imports in the year to June 2026, back to its June 2000 level and down from a 21.8% peak. Mexico is at a record 16.7%.
- The China discount reversed in dollars. In yuan it never did.Geopolitics & trade
The pre-duty price of Chinese goods has risen 2.1% in dollars since July 2025. Translated back into yuan, the same series fell 3.6% over the same months.
- US imports didn't fall under tariffs. They changed address.Geopolitics & trade
China's share of US goods imports fell from 17.4% to 7.8% since 2022. Total imports rose 4.8% over the same period. Mexico took only 39% of the difference.
- The US trade deficit widened $23bn in a month. The level isn't the story.Geopolitics & trade
May's $23bn one-month widening was the third largest since 1992 and is not seasonal. But the deficit is trending better, not worse — and monthly swings this size …
