US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread
Is the yield curve still inverted, and how unusual is that?
High 64.68th percentile of the last five years
A high reading means a steep curve — long-term borrowing costs well above short-term. A negative reading means the curve is inverted, which has preceded every US recession since 1976, though with lags of one to two years and one false signal.
Reading for — 1 days ago.
Data last updated . Checked four times daily.
US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread since 1976
Percentage points. 12599 observations. Record high 2.91 on 4 February 2011.
Reading the bands
Each band is a percentile rank against this series' own trailing five years, computed using only data available at the time. A reading of 64.68 means the value has been lower than this on 64.68% of days in that window. The bands describe position, not direction — see above for what a high reading means here.
What each band means five bands, by percentile
| Band | Percentile | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Very high | 80–100 | Higher than it has been on four days in five over the past five years. |
| High | 60–80 | Above its own recent range, though not at an extreme. |
| Typical | 40–60 | Around the middle of its own five-year range. |
| Low | 20–40 | Below its own recent range. |
| Very low | 0–20 | Lower than it has been on four days in five over the past five years. |
Year by year
Year by year average, high and low for the last 15 years
| Year | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.48 | 0.74 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 0.48 | 0.73 | 0.2 |
| 2024 | -0.16 | 0.33 | -0.47 |
| 2023 | -0.62 | -0.13 | -1.08 |
| 2022 | -0.04 | 0.89 | -0.84 |
| 2021 | 1.18 | 1.59 | 0.72 |
| 2020 | 0.5 | 0.83 | 0.12 |
| 2019 | 0.17 | 0.34 | -0.04 |
| 2018 | 0.38 | 0.78 | 0.11 |
| 2017 | 0.93 | 1.3 | 0.51 |
| 2016 | 1 | 1.34 | 0.76 |
| 2015 | 1.45 | 1.77 | 1.19 |
| 2014 | 2.08 | 2.61 | 1.46 |
| 2013 | 2.04 | 2.66 | 1.46 |
| 2012 | 1.53 | 2 | 1.21 |
Full history from June 1976 in the CSV.
Sources · every one re-fetchable
The CSV link is the exact endpoint the pipeline calls, so any reading ever published here can be reproduced.
Sources publisher, series and fetch link
| Series | Publisher | Role | Observed | Fetch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread T10Y2Y · Percentage points | Federal Reserve Board via FRED | history | CSV |
Why this is measured in points, not percent
The spread crosses zero. On 16% of the days in this series it is negative, and on 30 days it has been exactly zero. A percentage change across a sign change is meaningless — a move from −0.5 to +0.2 is not “−140%”, it is 70 basis points of steepening. Every change on this page is therefore stated in percentage points.
This is the freshest series the site publishes, at about a one-day lag.
What an inversion does and does not tell you
An inverted curve means investors accept less to lend for ten years than for two — a bet that rates must fall, which usually means expecting a slowdown. It has preceded every US recession since this series began, which is why it is watched so closely.
It is a weaker signal than that record suggests. The lag between inversion and recession has run from about twelve months to over two years, it has produced at least one signal with no recession behind it, and a spread that has just turned positive again after an inversion is not evidence that anything is resolved.
Why a trade site publishes it
The spread is the price of long money in the world’s reserve currency. When it moves, the cost of financing inventory, shipping and trade credit moves with it, which is the channel through which US rates reach trade everywhere else.
The economy behind it
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